Atlanta 2024 top 20 prospects: Hurston

Atlanta has traded a lot of prospects, mostly to Oakland, and I’d say those trades have worked out extremely well so far. They won a World Series and two more division titles in the past two years, while they’re set at almost every position. The one thing they will need soon in the majors is starting pitching, and that’s also the one thing the system might be able to help them with in the next 18 months.

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Atlanta 2024 top 20 prospects

(Note: Seasonal ages as of July 1, 2024. Scouting grades are on the traditional 20-80 or 2-8 scouting scale.)

1. Hurston Waldrep, RHP (2024 top 100 ranking: 80)

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 210 | Seasonal age in 2024: 22

Waldrep’s splitter was one of the best pitches in the draft last year, helping him rank third in NCAA Division I with 156 strikeouts, but he used the pitch too often and his overall line suffered a little, which may be how a guy who touched 99 mph with a bona fide out-pitch slid to the 24th overall pick in the draft. Atlanta grabbed him and, bucking every industry trend, had him throw 29 1/3 innings in pro ball in his debut, finishing with a single start in Triple A.

The splitter is just sick — it looks like a fastball out of his hand, has good velo separation from the heater at 85-89, and has huge bottom to it, yanked downward by some invisible zombie hand coming out of the ground like in the “Thriller” video. It also finishes out of the zone too often to be his go-to pitch — it’s a chase pitch, and a great one, but that’s all, and he’ll need to use all four pitches together to be a big-league starter. He has a curve and slider, either of which would likely improve with use, as in college he wouldn’t finish them out front, while his fastball sits 95 but doesn’t have great ride or life. He may never have more than average control, so he’ll really have to mix the four pitches to keep hitters off balance and generate more swings and misses. If not, he’s an easy guy to move to the bullpen, where he could junk one of the breaking balls and would be fine using the splitter at a higher rate than he can as a starter.

2. Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 200 | Seasonal age in 2024: 24

Schwellenbach was Atlanta’s 2021 second-round pick but required Tommy John surgery shortly after he signed, so he didn’t make his pro debut until 2023, throwing 65 innings across 16 starts between Low A and High A. He pitched well for someone just back on the mound, running the fastball up to 98 mph with a solid-average slider among his five pitches. He’s a very good athlete who was a full-time shortstop at Nebraska in 2021 as well as the closer, with a repeatable delivery that should allow him to continue starting. He’ll have to tighten up the pitch mix at some point and build up his innings, with a league-average starter ceiling.

3. AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 205 | Seasonal age in 2024: 21

Smith-Shawver ended up making his major-league debut out of necessity last year, reaching the big leagues at age 20 and with less than 140 innings of pro experience. He sits 94-95 mph with plus carry, getting 18-19 inches of induced vertical break, although the pitch didn’t miss many bats in the majors or even in Triple A, with major-league hitters cracking five homers just off his fastball. He’s got a slider, curve, and a split-change, with an exceptionally low spin rate on the slider and very little action on the split-change. His slider did back up in the majors as he struggled with his release, seeing his spin efficiency plummet. He rushes through his delivery with little tempo or momentum to it, looking every bit of a reliever when he works like that, and it may be hurting his command and his ability to get to a consistent release point on the breaking stuff. Smith-Shawver might have the size and arm strength to start eventually, but he didn’t look ready for the majors last fall and probably shouldn’t be rushed back there in 2024.

4. Ignacio Alvarez, SS

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 5-11 | Weight: 190 | Seasonal age in 2024: 21

“Nacho” was Atlanta’s fifth-round pick in 2022 out of Riverside City College, a two-year school, and followed up a strong pro debut that summer with a .284/.395/.391 season as a 20-year-old in High A. A fairly unknown player at the time Atlanta took him, Alvarez can really hit, with high contact rates even against breaking stuff, with some doubles power but likely never more than 10-12 homers a year even at his peak, as it’s mostly medium-quality contact. He played shortstop all of 2023, but is more likely to move to second or third. He could hit .300 with a high OBP and a little power, which would make him a regular at either of those positions, although his value will probably always depend very heavily on his batting average.

JR Ritchie is recovering from Tommy John surgery. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)

5. JR Ritchie, RHP

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 185 | Seasonal age in 2024: 21

Ritchie was Atlanta’s second pick in the 2022 draft but the highest-ranked player on my draft rankings whom they took, and for four starts he looked every bit the part, striking out 47 percent of the batters he faced in 13 1/3 innings … and then his elbow went. He had Tommy John surgery in late May, so he could return later this summer, but it’s an unfortunate twist given how well he was pitching. He’d been 93-96 mph with a plus slider and a changeup that flashed plus as well, along with a great delivery and frame. Assuming the stuff comes back, he has No. 2 starter upside thanks to the development he’s already shown with the changeup.

6. Drake Baldwin, C

Bats: L | Throws: R | Height: 6-0 | Weight: 210 | Seasonal age in 2024: 23

Baldwin is an outstanding pitch blocker and solid framer who has a 60 arm, lacking the accuracy to fully utilize it, while he’s got enough power to at least profile as a future backup. His performance underwhelmed in the first half last season, with big timing issues at the plate. He lowered his hands in the middle of the year to reduce the time it took to get his bat head into the zone and he took off, hitting .340/.446/.556 in the second half, even through promotions to Double A and then to Triple A. He’s left-handed, has 15+ homer power, controls the zone, and can definitely catch. He could end up someone’s starter, with an excellent chance to have a long career as a backup if he doesn’t continue to hit like this.

7. Cade Kuehler, RHP

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 5-11 | Weight: 190 | Seasonal age in 2024: 21

Kuehler was Atlanta’s third pick last July, sliding a little in the draft after he missed several starts in May due to injury. He’s a maxed-out righty with a high-effort delivery who worked 93-96 in the spring with a plus slider, and after signing he broke out a splitter that he didn’t use in college but that should be a big improvement over his changeup. The delivery is not great for durability, but so far he’s thrown strikes and you have to send him out as a starter with that arsenal.

8. Owen Murphy, RHP

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 190 | Seasonal age in 2024: 20

Murphy was Atlanta’s first-round pick in 2022, a bit of a reach at the time as he’s a 6-foot (if that) right-hander who had a fastball and some feel to pitch but not a ton else. He does throw a lot of strikes with a fastball that has 55 velocity but plays a little down because it doesn’t have the quality to miss more bats, while his secondary stuff all lags behind, notably the breaking ball. He stayed healthy all year and walked 8.3 percent of batters between Low A and High A, which is something for a high school draftee in his first full season. He could end up a back-end starter because of the control and feel to pitch, without much ceiling beyond that.

9. David McCabe, 3B/1B

Bats: B | Throws: R | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 230 | Seasonal age in 2024: 24

The Big Maple can hit, and really should have been challenged with tougher assignments, as he was 23 last year in A-ball and managed a .386 OBP on the season, followed by a .448 OBP showing in the AFL. He’s playing third base now but it would be a miracle if he can play anywhere but first. It’s hard contact from both sides but not exactly over-the-fence power, and I don’t think he barrels the ball up quite enough to project to get to 25+ homers. His path to becoming a regular is to keep the average/OBP up against better pitching, although it’s most likely given his defensive limitations that he’ll be a bench bat.

10. Didier Fuentes, RHP

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-0 | Weight: 170 | Seasonal age in 2024: 19

Signed out of Colombia, Fuentes was just 18 in Low A and posted a 7+ ERA there, but he’s got two potentially plus pitches from a low three-quarters slot that puts carry on the fastball and gives right-handed batters a tough look. He’s 90-94 mph, touching 96, and when he stays right on top of the ball it slices through the top of the zone, while sometimes he over-pronates and it gets more arm side run (often out of the zone). The slider is 79-84 or so but it is sharp with tilt and sweep and got whiffs and chases galore. He has a changeup but barely uses it, so lefties torched him last year (.383/.434/.766!), and he’s a straight reliever if that doesn’t improve somehow. It’s a great arm for someone who won’t even turn 19 until June and already has full-season experience.

11. Drue Hackenberg, RHP

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 220 | Seasonal age in 2024: 22

The fourth Hackenberg brother to play pro sports in the US — Adam is in the White Sox’s system, Brandon plays for Orlando City B in the MLS minors, and Christian was a quarterback who was on the Jets’ roster but didn’t play — Drue is a strike thrower who always showed good feel to pitch without much in the way of stuff. Last spring at Virginia Tech, his fastball kept creeping up, getting to 92-96 mph with plus sink by the end of the season along with a plus slider (which he calls a curveball). He lacked a weapon for lefties and had a big platoon split even in college, so he has to address that to remain a starter, but otherwise has two weapons and the control to stick in that role and maybe end up a league-average guy.

12. Jhancarlos Lara, RHP

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 190 | Seasonal age in 2024: 21

Lara might have the best slider in Atlanta’s system; it’s up to 89-90 mph and just disappears as it approaches the plate, getting whiff rates near 50 percent in A-ball last year. He sits 94-96 and touches 99, working almost exclusively with those two pitches, with the slider getting into the low 90s as the season went on but losing some of its break to become more cutter-like. He’s a big guy, listed at 6-3 with a frame that looks like it could put on a lot more muscle, definitely a starter’s body and a good enough delivery to at least get to average control. He’s got work to do, needing a third pitch, getting that slider more consistent and avoiding throwing it too hard, but you can dream on this package and see a mid-rotation starter or an elite high-leverage reliever.

13. Sabin Ceballos, 3B

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 225 | Seasonal age in 2024: 21

Ceballos hails from Puerto Rico and ended up at Oregon, from where Atlanta drafted him in the third round last July. He’s a high-contact hitter with excellent plate coverage and ball/strike recognition, showing some pull power and the associated weakness on breaking stuff down and away from right-handers that you get when you try to pull too many pitches. Scouts on the amateur side thought he was destined for first base, with a mature body and heavier feet, though Atlanta is going to try him at third base and see if he can stick there, as he has good hands.

14. Garrett Baumann, RHP

Bats: L | Throws: R | Height: 6-8 | Weight: 245 | Seasonal age in 2024: 19

Baumann is a 6-foot-8 righty from the same high school that recently gave us Riley Greene and Vaughn Grissom, working up to 96 mph from a slot just above three-quarters. He’s got good fade on a changeup and switched to a slider last spring to give himself a real third pitch. He’s got the usual injury risk of a high school pitcher, and guys this tall sometimes need more time to get their deliveries consistent. His mechanics look pretty good, though, and if the three pitches are still there this spring he might surprise some folks.

15. Luis Guanipa, OF

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 5-11 | Weight: 188 | Seasonal age in 2024: 18

Guanipa signed for a $2.5 million bonus in January 2023, and the Venezuelan outfielder had an adequate debut in the Dominican Summer League last summer, somehow getting hit by 11 pitches in 46 games. He’s 5-foot-10 or so but swings hard and should end up with average or better power, while he’s a 50-55 runner who looks like he’ll stick in centerfield. He’ll come to the U.S. this year and needs to show a little boost in contact quality to stay on track to be an above-average regular in center.

16. Adam Maier, RHP

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-0 | Weight: 203 | Seasonal age in 2024: 22

Atlanta took Maier in the seventh round in 2022, but he has yet to make his pro debut, as first he had surgery to get an internal brace on his UCL, and then had an oblique strain that delayed him in 2023. When last we saw him on a mound, he worked in the low 90s and had a downward-breaking slider that scouts thought could get to plus, showing enough changeup to talk about him as a starter.

Darius Vines made his major-league debut in 2023. (Dale Zanine / USA Today)

17. Darius Vines, RHP

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 190 | Seasonal age in 2024: 26

Vines is a fifth/sixth starter who’s major-league ready now, working cutter/four-seam/changeup with nothing plus. The cutter may be a tick above average and the fastball tops out around 90 mph, along with at least 55 control. He’s probably best suited to a long relief role.

18. Luke Waddell, IF

Bats: L | Throws: R | Height: 5-7 | Weight: 180 | Seasonal age in 2024: 25

Waddell might get some time as the last man on a bench, as he can handle all the infield positions and puts the ball in play, but it’s 30 power and I think his high walk rates will come down because big-league pitchers will just challenge him in the zone.

19. Isaiah Drake, OF

Bats: L | Throws: R | Height: 6-0 | Weight: 180 | Seasonal age in 2024: 18

Drake played at an Atlanta high school in the team’s backyard, offering some tantalizing upside with 70 speed and all-around athleticism but some lack of present baseball skills, especially in pitch and ball/strike recognition. He struck out 38 percent of the time in a 77 PA stint in the Florida Complex League, and I think he’ll have to go back there this year for his age-18 season. His older brother, Kenyon, has played seven seasons in the NFL.

20. Ambioris Tavarez, SS

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 5-11 | Weight: 168 | Seasonal age in 2024: 20

Tavarez had a miserable year at the plate, nearly punching out 200 times, with a 41 percent strikeout rate as a 19-year-old in Low A. It was, however, his first full year back after surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome, after which he’d played just 17 games in 2022 plus a little more in winter ball. That’s not an insignificant procedure (they remove a rib, and something in my brain says there is no job for which I would let someone remove a part of my body), so I’m cutting him some slack. He’s a plus defender at short and before the surgery had shown great hand acceleration for potentially plus bat speed. Obviously he has to make a lot more contact to project to anything.

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Others of note

• Douglas Glod can draw a walk but his swing is so long that pitchers who could throw strikes had no trouble with the 18-year-old in the FCL, striking him out 31 percent of the time, often with fringe-average fastballs.

• Right-hander Blake Burkhalter, the team’s 2022 second-round pick out of Auburn, had Tommy John surgery last March and missed all of 2023. Pre-surgery, he’d show three pitches, nothing plus but throwing everything for strikes. The hope was he’d move quickly to the majors but his UCL had other ideas.

• Infielder Cal Conley had an awful 2023, showing no ability to pick up non-fastballs as a 23-year-old in Double A. He can run and play 55 defense at second or fringy defense at short, but after a .219/.298/.286 line last year he looks like a 4A guy tops.

• Dylan Dodd reached the majors last year and barely still qualifies for the list. He’s got an arsenal of fringy to below-average stuff and major-league hitters teed off on him, with a 46 percent hard-hit rate.

2024 impact

The fact that Waldrep finished in Triple A makes me think Atlanta wants him on the big-league roster this year in some role. Vines and Dodd might see some big-league time but I would not project any positive value from either.

The fallen

Jesse Franklin V had a moment as a prospect, but Atlanta’s 2020 third-round pick returned after missing most of the 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery to hit .232/.315/.419 as a 24-year-old in Double A, and he still has huge pitch recognition issues that make it hard for him to get to his plus (or better) power.