Looking for some value all over your draft? Upside beyond pick 450? A couple Oakland A’s to grab late? Production in the 200s? Our fantasy baseball writers share their 2024 sleepers (late February edition) below. We’ll be back a couple more times before draft season wraps as things evolve. But for now, here are a dozen under-appreciated players to dig into as you prep.
Taylor Ward, OF (LAA)
Gosh, this is a boring one. But boring often means opportunity, because writers don’t usually want to tout a player that’s just solid and has the ceiling of a slightly above-average regular. 30 years old and on the team that just lost the best player in baseball? A team that will surely have the worst vibes in baseball this season? Nobody’s going to remember you for this sleeper pick.
It sounds better if you accentuate the positive, though. Taylor Ward is projected by The BAT X to be a Top 30 hitter this coming season, and yet he goes outside of the Top 225 picks. He’s sure to have value in any league of any size, as he’s likely to hit 20+ homers, steal five-plus bags and have a batting average over .260 – even in 10-teamers that’s only slightly below average across the board. He’s a “no negative” kind of guy.
Could he outpace those projections and make me look super smart? Probably not, which is why he’s boring. At 30 and coming off an injury, it’s hard to pencil him in for 600+ plate appearances or a big jump in power or speed. But again, his strengths — a really good eye, strong raw power that he’s tapped into for long stretches, above-average ability to make contact, and non-zero speed — will help your team at a cheap price. Any amount of bulk he gives you is where the bonus comes in. —Eno Sarris
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Ryan Pepiot, RHP (TB)
Despite battling an oblique strain for most of 2023, Pepiot dominated as a swing-man with the Dodgers. Improving his walk rate from a poor 17% in 2022 to an elite 3% in 2023, Pepiot’s profile improved drastically. This is due to mechanical changes and an intentional effort from Pepiot to improve his control and command. When he returned from injury last season, he had a higher release point and the zone rates on all his pitches improved. The improved control and command significantly improved Pepiot’s results across the board, particularly with the prevention of hard-hit balls.
On top of the improved control, Pepiot has plus stuff. His 94-mph four-seam has plus ride, his 87-mph changeup has above-average fade and depth, and his hard 89-mph slider has above-average sweep. While the changeup is typically a platoon pitch, Pepiot can effectively use it against both hands. With three above-average weapons against right-handed hitters and the four-seam/slider combination against left-handed hitters, it’s no wonder the Rays targeted Pepiot and slated him as a mid-rotation starter. Knowing how intentional the Rays are when acquiring players, we can anticipate Pepiot to be in good hands when he faces challenges throughout the year.
The moral of the story is this: Pepiot has plus stuff, can effectively face both hands and is joining a team that is historically elite at developing pitchers. — Andrea Arcadipane
Cristopher Sánchez, LHP (PHI)
The Phillies were searching for a fifth starter most of the season last year. Sánchez wasn’t a name mentioned early in the season and eventually became a fixture in the starting rotation. He had a sore triceps late in the spring and made a spot start in April before being sent back to the minors.
He returned to the Phillies on June 17 and was key in their success. The left-hander appeared in 19 games — 18 as a starter — and had a 3.44 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, a 24.2% strikeout rate and a 4.0% walk rate.
Sánchez had a 57% ground ball rate and increased the usage of his changeup, which had a 43% whiff rate. The slider had a 29.7% whiff rate. He pounded the strike zone with a 66.7% first-pitch strike percentage. If Sánchez can improve against right-handers, he could come close to last season’s stats. He allowed 15 of his 16 homers against right-handers. Sánchez throws strikes, limits walks, induce ground balls at a high rate, has a filthy changeup and is backed by a good offense. He has the ingredients to be good again. — Adam Ronis
Nick Lodolo, SP (CIN)
I’m bullish on the Reds’ young pitching improving enough to make this team a legitimate threat in the NL Central this season. Hunter Greene is electric, and he’ll often be drafted 100+ picks before Lodolo comes off the board. Several injuries have delayed the opportunity for a breakout, including a stress reaction in his tibia that cost Lodolo most of the 2023 campaign.
There are 28 starting pitchers with a 20.0% K-BB% (min. 100 IP) since the start of 2022. Lodolo is one of them. Great American Ball Park as a home park shaves off a little bit of the ceiling, but I’m beginning to feel the same way about Lodolo that I did when Tarik Skubal was working his way back from injury last season. The ingredients are here for a four-pitch starter capable of pushing a sub-4.00 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning for a team on the rise. — Derek VanRiper
Ryan Noda, 1B (OAK)
It’s difficult to get overly excited about anything to do with the 2024 Athletics (other than maybe that elephant balancing on a giant beachball), but I genuinely am. Forget the jersey. Twenty-seven-year-old sophomore Ryan Noda is being severely overlooked in fantasy circles given the price plus opportunity. After providing in all five categories throughout MiLB at a robust 600 PA pace since 2018 (.251 BA, 90 R, 95 RBI, 27 HR, 14 SB) Noda finally earned a promotion to the Opening Day roster and a platoon role with veteran Jesús Aguilar. The debut wasn’t perfect but Noda did enough to earn the regular job at 1B as the A’s No. 2 hitter. There’s no hiding the obvious struggles at the MLB level, namely the elevated strikeout (33.4%) and swinging strike (15.0%) rates. However, I’d counter that despite the outcomes, Noda’s unwillingness to reach outside the zone provides some encouragement for improvement — his 22.4% O-Swing is tied with Alex Bregman and Yandy Díaz, two hitters renowned for discipline.
If only Noda were more aggressive (42.7% Swing) at the dish, we could see him tap into what is legitimately elite power in the bat. He’s one of only 19 hitters in MLB with a 45%+ Hard Hit rate (95+ mph), 13.0%+ Barrel, 40%+ Pull, and .440+ xwOBAcon. For their many flaws, that aggression issue very well may have been addressed by the Athletics. We saw a steady and marked gain in swing rate as the season progressed, translating to higher contact quality. With zero competition for playing time and a continuation in growth, we could get 30+ bombs from a pick outside 450!
You’ve been warned… Ryan Noda is, in fact, not a mattress — don’t sleep on him. — John Laghezza
Tarik Skubal, Zach Eflin, Kutter Crawford, Bryan Woo
These are the pitchers I like above market. But I only pay market prices. That’s the profit! I’m not really interested so much in hitters as sleepers as there is so much convergence in hitter ranks and divergence in pitcher ranks. This is why we pay more for hitters than pitchers.
Tarik Skubal (ADP: 55) was so dominant in his last six starts, going 4-1 with a 1.25 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. He whiffed 52 with just six walks in these final 36 frames. He finished the season as basically the best pitcher.
I really like Zach Eflin (ADP: 91). He’s on a Tampa Bay team that consistently gets good pitching results. He really came into his own. Having a 3.02 expected ERA is insanely good. The only pitcher with more than 311 batters faced to have one lower was Pablo Lopez (3.00). So these guys are the same and Eflin is cheaper.
Two very cheap pitchers were much better in 2023 than their actual ERA indicated – Kutter Crawford (ADP: 299) and Bryan Woo (ADP: 189). I see room for more Ks for Woo given his minor league rates and velocity (95.1 mph average fastball). His swinging strike rate on 13.2% of pitches also suggests he has 30% K% upside.
Required Reading: Andrea Arcadipane’s scouting breakdown of Bryan Woo (and Bryce Miller)
Beyond Crawford’s expected ERA of 3.25, which is 75th percentile for a starter, he had a K% minus BB% of 18.8%, which is good. Crawford gets max RPMs on his fastball and can throw it up in the zone, generating impressive whiffs with the pitch. I have Crawford and Woo in the same bucket so Crawford is an enormous value given that Woo himself is too cheap. —Michael Salfino
Tyler O’Neill, OF (BOS)
It’s difficult labeling a player with a peak season under his belt a “sleeper,” but at his current price point, O’Neill fits the bill. He’s a freak of nature, with biceps looking like they should be on a cartoon character. After suffering a myriad of injuries, and spending time in the dog house with St. Louis, he sits on the precipice of free agency with a fresh start in Boston. He remains within his power peak window and has improved his discipline metrics — despite his counting statistics since 2022.
O’Neill reduced his O-Swing (outside the strike zone) percentage in each of the last two years, and increased his contact rate along with his Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percentage, illustrated in his rolling 15-game chart:
He may not replicate his 34 home runs, 80 RBI, and 15 stolen bases over 537 plate appearances in 2021. However, a 25-plus home run and 10-plus stolen base campaign with an average at, or above, .260 may be attainable in his new home. There’s risk baked into his draft capital, but those mining upside past pick 200 may benefit from his pending bounce back. — Greg Jewett
Brandon Pfaadt, SP (ARI)
Post-hype breakout candidates present themselves in many forms. After struggling during his first time through the majors, Pfaadt was demoted and underwent a reset at Triple-A, returning in July. He fared well but didn’t start making headway until late September. This coincided with his strong showing in the playoffs. Before delving into the tweaks with his pitch mix in postseason starts, his results in the regular season versus the playoffs:
Pfaadt (Regular Season): 3-9 record, 19 games, 96 IP, 94:26 K:BB (16.2 K-BB percentage), 5.72 ERA, 4.28 SIERA, 1.41 WHIP, 11.3 percent swinging strike rate
Pfaadt (Postseason): 0-1 record, 5 games, 22 IP, 26:5 K:BB (24.1 K-BB percentage), 3.27 ERA, 2.96 SIERA, 1.09 WHIP, 16.1 percent swinging strike rate
This chart highlights the changes in his pitch usage patterns in October versus his regular season trends and outcomes:
Carrying over the gains displayed, especially in the swinging strike percentages, could unlock a breakout season for savvy fantasy players. Monitor his pitch mix during spring outings and take a chance on a pitcher capable of logging 160-plus innings this season with a chance at double digits in wins. — Greg Jewett (bonus sleeper)
Miguel Andújar, OF/1B (OAK)
Far away, in some other universe, Miguel Andújar is entering the 2024 season coming off his sixth straight season of 25-plus homers, with a string of .265-ish batting averages. Fantasy writers are debating whether his consistency means he should be taken in the early rounds, or if we’ve seen his ceiling (“despite a 34-homer season in 2022!”). Back in this timeline, however, Andújar is slated to be a reserve outfielder for the Oakland A’s, after being buried in the Pirates’ farm system, which followed four years of being buried in the Yankees’ farm system. This isn’t a guy who can’t hit — Andújar had a .297 average and 27 home runs in his 2018 rookie campaign, but the Yankees reloaded and squeezed him out; Andújar went on to do this while in the minors:
Year
Tm
Lev
Aff
G
PA
AB
R
H
2B
HR
RBI
SB
BB
SO
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS
2021
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
AAA
NYY
16
63
54
13
18
1
5
13
0
7
6
0.333
0.397
0.63
1.026
2022
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
AAA
NYY
71
297
277
42
79
17
13
51
5
17
35
0.285
0.33
0.487
0.817
2023
Indianapolis
AAA
PIT
103
465
414
63
140
30
16
86
5
47
55
0.338
0.404
0.536
0.941
What I’m seeing is a clear path to playing time (apologies to Roster Resource), skill, patience, and probably a lot of pent-up resentment. Andújar is an afterthought to an afterthought, but he should get 500 ABs for the A’s, and that should mean 25 HRs, a .265-ish average, maybe an All-Star appearance, a bunch of feel-good feature stories written about him, and, most importantly for us, fantasy value. — Nando Di Fino
(Top photo: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images; Photo of Cristopher Sánchez: Dave Nelson-USA TODAY Sports)
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